Oscar Predictions 2019

It’s almost time for launch! As usual, not necessarily what I think should win, but these are my predictions for what I think will win on Sunday night. Only one real long shot. My track record’s pretty solid, but place your bets as you see fit:

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman (also nominated for Best Director)

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite (also nominated for Best Director)

Green Book

Roma (also nominated for Best Director) The only way this doesn’t win is if enough voices in the academy are united enough to want to send a message to Netflix. But I just don’t see that happening.

A Star is Born

Vice (also nominated for Best Director)

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife     The clear favorite. Personally I’m rooting for Gaga, but Close is a shoe-in.

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk     Again, a complete lock. 

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody     The Globes have spoken. Only Bale is a possibility. Though Bradley Cooper, I’d so love to see you nab this. 

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star is Born     My one long shot. Ali is the likely winner, but I’m gambling that Sam is as well liked by others as he is by me. I’d so love to see him recognized, especially for this role. 

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best Director

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War (the only Director not also nominated for Best Picture – it’s nominated for Best Foreign-Language Film)

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma     It could be Spike, which I’d love, but I think Alfonso’s just too golden. 

Adam McKay, Vice

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)     In the bag. It has to win something.

First Reformed (Paul Schrader)

Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly)

Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)

Vice (Adam McKay)

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)

BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)     Spike’s Oscar. The acceptance speech I’m most looking forward to.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)

A Star Is Born (Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters)