Crystal Ball Persuasion: Oscar Predictions!

Hear that? It's the sound of celebrities not eating food! Today is the day of denial in Hollywood - of denying both probability and sustenance, all in the hope of being struck by lightning. My crystal ball didn't do too badly last year, so it's time once again to play weatherman and do a little forecasting.

Picture - The tightest race in years. In 17 of the last 24 years (and the last 6 straight running) the movie that's won the Producers Guild Award has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar. Well this year, for the first time in the PGA's 25-year history, there was a tie, between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. So this year, the outcome has never been more uncertain. As we saw last year, more traditional epic historical pictures like Lincoln are losing out to more vigorous pictures embraced by younger audiences, which proved true with Argo. 12 Years a Slave didn't do much box office and has a bit of a "eat your vegetables" perception problem. So I think that Gravity has the edge (see director, below) - but given how weird the voting is, and how divided the supporting factions are, the vote could easily be split between these two bigger favorites, cancelling each other out, and letting a smaller film like Dallas Buyers Club or American Hustle walk away with the big cheese. But I'm still going with Gravity here.

Director - Hands down, Alfonso Cuaron, for Gravity. He's universally beloved, won the DGA, and showed chops for inventiveness that moved him up into James Cameron territory. He's got it in the bag.

Actor - Matthew McConaughey, hands down. He's extraordinary in Dallas Buyers Club and he's blowing people away on True Detective. 2014 is his career ascension year, capping off with Interstellar in November. A well-deserved win.

Actress - Loved Bullock in Gravity, but she's a recent winner. Momentum (and the amazing performance) should give it to Cate Blanchett. The big variable here could be reaction to Woody Allen's reemerging unpleasantness, plus the fact that everyone in this category has won before...except Amy Adams. So there could very well be an upset here. But put your money on Blanchett

Supporting Actress - Another super tight race, between Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) and Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave). Lawrence just won last year, but here she shows more versatility and is mostly adored in Hollywood, succeeding in both top tier dramas and broad box office (Hunger Games). Still, the Academy is going to feel they have to acknowledge 12 Years with something for acting, so I think Lupita Nyong'o has the edge this time. Without a doubt, one of the closest categories.

Supporting Actor - Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. As great as Barkhad Abdi was in Captain Phillips, it would be a stunning upset if Leto doesn't win.

Screenplay - Original Screenplay will go to Her, which really cultivated some amazing late in the game love this year. 12 Years a Slave will very likely take Adapted Screenplay.

There you have it! A crazy year, to be sure - but then, aren't they all? So purge if you need to, and squeeze into those gowns, ladies. Gents, try and act like this isn't your first rodeo. It should be a memorable evening!
We'll meet back here after the dust settles to see how it all sorted out. Have a great weekend, everybody.