Oscar Eve: Of horse races and ho-hums

It's time once again to make some pre-combat predictions and remind ourselves (cough) that it's just an honor to be nominated! Makeup will be blasting out of every available airbrush and body tape will be stretched to the breaking point. No limo will go home unscathed.

We did pretty darn well with weather forecasting last year, and this one doesn't feel like it's too likely to present much upheaval, with only one real horse race.

Picture and Director - It's Birdman this year. There was an awful lot of support for Boyhood, but Birdman has surged and should walk away with both Picture and Director. The only way this could fall apart is if those two picture's supporters split the vote and something unsuspected like The Grand Budapest Hotel (heavily favored in many non-actor categories) or American Sniper benefits from divided faction loyalties. But I think those are really slim odds, so don't expect it.

Actor - Michael Keaton.  Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) has won a lot of awards this season, including the SAG, which makes this the only real horse race of the night. The last time the SAG winner didn't go on to nail Best Actor was in 2003, when SAG winner Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) saw Sean Penn take Best Actor for Mystic River. While Redmayne is an engaging newcomer, Birdman's story about the struggles of an actor late in his career not only fits veteran Keaton like a glove, but will resonate throughout the voting population.
I think Keaton's got it.

Actress - Julianne Moore. Though not a lot of people have actually seen Still Alice, Moore is beloved and this is her fifth nomination, I think she's got it in the bag, but ya never know. Reese Witherspoon?

Supporting Actor - J.K. Simmons. Ba-dum-dum. Rimshot. Done. Schillinger.

Supporting Actress - Patricia Arquette. This one is so wildly considered a done deal, the one for-sure trophy that's going to Boyhood. Still, Laura Dern? Emma Stone? It ain't impossible. But I think Arquette will win.

Screenplay - The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game. These feel like what the Academy will acknowledge as more literary "on the page" stories, but it's possible that Birdman could take Original and Sniper Adapted, though I hope not.

There you have it. This year, there's not a single person of color up for an acting award, so the Academy has tried to best Benetton in a bid to show how really ethnic and diverse they are.
Uh, yeah.

Not the most exciting year, but we have some good films in the mix and Neil Patrick Harris hosting, so we should be in for a lively, better-rehearsed outing than in years past.

The 87th Annual Academy Awards gets rolling on ABC at 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 Pacific.
Grab some popcorn, pour a glass of wine and make way for the train wreck.